jueves, 21 de noviembre de 2013

MINUTAS DE LA FED INDICAN QUE ES PROBABLE UNA REDUCCION DE LOS ESTIMULOS MONETARIOS

Minutas completas
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20131030.pdf

Algunos párrafos para resaltar
Importante visión de la Fed sobre el crecimiento mundial principalmente de los emergentes

Foreign economic growth appeared to improve in the third quarter following a sluggish first half, largely re-flecting stronger growth estimated for China and a re-bound in Mexico from contraction in the previous quarter. Growth also picked up in the third quarter in the United Kingdom, and available indicators suggested an increase in growth in Canada and continued mild recovery in the euro area. Economic activity in Japan appeared to have decelerated somewhat from its first-half pace but continued to expand, and inflation meas-ured on a 12-month basis turned positive in the middle of this year. Inflation elsewhere generally remained subdued. Monetary policy stayed highly accommoda-tive in advanced foreign economies. In addition, the Bank of Mexico continued to ease monetary policy, citing concerns about the strength of the economy, but central banks in certain other emerging market econo-mies, including Brazil and India, tightened policy and intervened in currency markets in response to concerns about the

Vision sobre la evolución del consumo americano

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose moderately in August. In September, nominal retail sales, excluding those at motor vehicle and parts out-lets, increased significantly, while sales of light motor vehicles declined. Recent readings on key factors that influence consumer spending were somewhat mixed: Households’ net worth likely expanded further as both equity values and home prices rose in recent months, and real disposable incomes increased solidly in Au-gust, but measures of consumer sentiment declined in September and October.

Interesante visión sobre comportamiento de las tasas de interés e impacto sobre el sector inmobiliario

Financial conditions eased notably over the intermeet-ing period, with declines in longer-term interest rates and increases in equity values. Financial quotes sug-gested that markets moved out the date at which they expected to see the Committee first increase the federal funds rate target. It was noted that interest rate volatili-ty was substantially lower than at the time of the Sep-tember meeting, and a couple of participants pointed to signs suggesting that reaching-for-yield behavior might be increasing again. Nevertheless, term premiums ap-peared to only partially retrace their rise of earlier in the year, and longer-term interest rates remained well above their levels in the spring. A few participants ex-pressed concerns about the eventual economic impact of the change in financial conditions since the spring; in particular, increases in mortgage rates and home prices had reduced the affordability of housing, and the high-er rates were at least partly responsible for some slow-ing in that sector. One participant stated that the ex-tended period of near-zero interest rates continued to create challenges for the banking industry, as net inter-est margins remained under pressure.